November inflation numbers - 17th November 2025

The UK CPI inflation rate for November 2025, which was 3.2%, down a surprise 0.4% from October

CPI inflation for November was down 0.4% from the previous month at 3.2%. That is a significant undershoot of the Reuters’ market consensus expectation of 3.5% and is a faster fall then the Bank of England was anticipating. In its November Monetary Policy Report the Bank said “[October inflation]… is likely to be the peak. Beneath the headline numbers, underlying price and wage pressures have continued to ease. Inflation is likely to fall to close to 3% early next year before gradually returning towards to the 2% target over the subsequent year.” 

The 3.2% CPI figure, alongside yesterday’s 4.7% earnings growth (including bonuses) and 5.1% unemployment rate data make it almost certain that Thursday will see the Bank of England cut its main interest rate by 0.25% to 3.75%. 

The UK CPI reading was down 0.2% between October and November, whereas the corresponding period of 2024 saw a 0.1% increase. The CPI/RPI gap narrowed 0.1% to 0.6% with the RPI annual rate fell by 0.5% (to 3.8%). Over the month the RPI index fell by 0.5%. 

The ONS’s favoured CPIH index was down 0.3% at an annual 3.5%, increasing its still wide margin above the CPI. As we have regularly said in recent months, a large part of that excess is due to the owner occupiers’ housing (OOH) category, which has a 17.1% weighting in the CPIH but is absent from the CPI. The OOH inflation rate dropped 0.3% to 4.5%, 3.5% off its peak January 2025 level and back to the level last seen in July 2023. 

The ONS attributed the fall in CPIH inflation to:

Main downward drivers

Food and non-alcoholic beverages. Food and non-alcoholic beverages prices rose by 4.2% in the 12 months to November 2025, down from 4.9% in the 12 months to October. On a monthly basis, food and non-alcoholic beverages prices fell by 0.2% in November 2025, compared with a rise of 0.5% a year ago.

Alcohol and tobacco. Prices in this division rose by 4.0% in the 12 months to November 2025, down from 5.9% in the 12 months to October. The November figure was the lowest recorded since December 2022. On a monthly basis, prices fell by 0.4% in November 2025, compared with a rise of 1.4% a year ago.

The easing in the 12-month rate reflected a downward effect from tobacco, where prices fell by 0.1% between October and November 2025, compared with a rise of 3.3% a year ago. This appears to be a Budget timing effect. The ONS notes, “The rise in November 2024 was possibly influenced by an increase in tobacco duty, which took effect on 30 October 2024. Duty rates on tobacco did not increase in 2025 until 26 November, which was after the data collection period for the month.” Watch for an unwind in December, when the Budget increases will hit the CPI basket.

Housing and household services. The 12-month inflation rate for housing and household services was 4.8% in November 2025, down from 5.0% in October. On a monthly basis, prices rose by 0.4% in November 2025, compared with a rise of 0.6% a year ago. The easing in the 12-month rate between October and November 2025 mainly reflected a downward effect from owner occupiers' housing (OOH) costs (see above). 

Clothing and footwear. Clothing and footwear prices fell by 0.6% in the 12 months to November 2025, compared with a rise of 0.3% in the 12 months to October. The rate was last lower in March 2021, when prices fell by 3.8% on the year.

On a monthly basis, prices fell by 0.3% into November 2025 compared with a rise of 0.6% a year ago. These price movements, to some extent, reflect changes in the proportion of discounted prices which increased between October and November in both years, possibly linked to the influence of Black Friday. However, the increase was greater in 2025 than 2024.

Main upward drivers 

There were no significant upward drivers, with only Communication making any noticeable impact.

Nine of the twelve broad CPI divisions saw annual inflation decrease, while two recorded a rise and one was unchanged. The categories with the highest annual inflation rate were Education (7.6%), Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (5.1%) and Communication (4.8%). Two categories, clothing and footwear (-0.6%) and Furniture, household equipment and maintenance (-0.3%) recorded annual falls.

Core CPI inflation (CPI excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) fell 0.2% to 3.2%. Goods inflation fell 0.5% to 2.1%, while services inflation, a focus for the Bank of England, was down 0.1% at 4.4%. 

The ONS restarted issue of its Producer Price Inflation indices in September, but says that “The accredited official statistics status of these statistics is suspended, pending a review by the Office for Statistics Regulation.” With that caveat in mind:

• Producer input prices rose by 1.1% in the year to November 2025, up from a revised rise of 0.8% in the year to October 2025.

• Producer output (factory gate) prices rose by 3.4% in the year to November 2025, down from a revised rise of 3.6% in the year to October 2025.

Source: Techlink Professional

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