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Global Equities Rally on Trade Deal Optimism
Easing trade tensions and upbeat company earnings results lifted global markets in October.
Strong start to earnings season
Global stock markets rallied in October, buoyed by optimism around corporate earnings and easing trade tensions between the US and China. It was another strong month for US equities after softer-than-expected inflation figures boosted hopes of further rate cuts.
Earnings season has got off to a good start, with around 85% of S&P 500 companies beating expectations so far – the highest in four years. The Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered rates for the second time this year by a quarter percentage point to support the slowing job market. It is the first time the Fed’s rate-setting committee has cut rates without access to the official jobs report since it was established in the 1930s, due to the ongoing government shutdown.
Republicans and Democrats remain deadlocked over a federal budget, making this the longest full government shutdown in US history. The shutdown has blacked out crucial economic data – from jobs to overall growth – complicating the Fed’s decision-making. Inflation data is also unlikely to be released in November.
UK inflation holds
UK inflation unexpectedly held steady at 3.8% in September for the third month in a row. Following a recent resurgence driven by higher food prices and the increase in National Insurance, economists believe inflation may now have peaked.
The UK job market continues to show signs of weakening, with pay growth slowing and unemployment rising. Unemployment rose to 4.8% in the three months to August, up from 4.7% in July. Meanwhile, annual wage growth in the same period eased slightly to 4.7% from 4.8%. All eyes are now on the upcoming UK Budget, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves expected to raise taxes and cut spending.
US - China reach deal on tariffs
The US and China have reached a preliminary trade deal, lowering US tariffs in exchange for access to China’s rare earth minerals. President Donald Trump said the one-year agreement will reduce US tariffs on Chinese goods from 57% to 47%. The US relies heavily on rare earth metals for advanced technologies, including cars, aircraft and weapons.
China’s exports to the US fell 27% in September compared with a year earlier, even as overall global exports hit a six-month high. Meanwhile, China’s total exports rose 8.3% year-on-year in September, up from 4.4% in August. However, its manufacturing sector contracted for a sixth consecutive month.
Japan’s stockmarket surged to a record high after the country’s parliament elected Sanae Takaichi as the country’s first female prime minister. Her incoming administration is expected to consider an increase in higher defence spending, tax cuts and a revival of Japan’s suspended nuclear power plants.
Meanwhile, there was further political turmoil in France after new Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu unexpectedly resigned before being reappointed. Eurozone inflation had risen to 2.2% in September – the first time it has exceeded the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2% target since April – but then dipped to 2.1% in October. Private sector activity also logged its strongest growth in almost two years, offering a glimmer of optimism for the eurozone economy.
Issued by Omnis Investments Limited. This update reflects Omnis and our investment management firms’ views at the time of writing and is subject to change. The document is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. We recommend you discuss any investment decisions with your financial adviser. Omnis is unable to provide investment advice. Every effort is made to ensure the accuracy of the information but no assurance or warranties are given. Past performance should not be considered as a guide to future performance. The Omnis Managed Investments ICVC and the Omnis Portfolio Investments ICVC are authorised Investment Companies with Variable Capital. The authorised corporate director of the Omnis Managed Investments ICVC and the Omnis Portfolio Investments ICVC is Omnis Investments Limited (Registered Address: Auckland House, Lydiard Fields, Swindon SN5 8UB) which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
Approved by Omnis Investments on 1 November 2025
Essential Wealth Management
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Essential Wealth Management is a trading name of Essential Wealth Management and Advice Ltd which is an appointed representative of 2plan wealth management Ltd which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Essential Wealth Management and Advice Ltd is entered on the FCA register (www.FCA.org.uk) under no. 518528. Registered office: 1-2 Great Farm Barns, West Woodhay,Newbury, Berkshire RG20 0BP. Registered in England and Wales Number: 04020006.
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