The Triple Lock - 16th September 2025

The key earnings growth figure for the Triple Lock, which has been announced

The May-July total earnings growth figure is one of the three components of the Triple Lock calculation, the others being September CPI annual inflation and the 2.5% floor. 

Today’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) earnings data shows that the yearly increase in May-July earnings (including bonuses), which is the basis for the Triple Lock, was 4.7%. Regular earnings (excluding bonuses) rose by 4.8%. September CPI numbers are not due out until 22 October, but, unless prices rise by more than 1.1% in the two months between July and September, CPI inflation will not exceed 4.7%. The Bank of England’s latest projection is the September’s annual inflation reading will be a peak reading of 4.0%. This lower figure will be relevant for other State Pension increases, e.g. Additional Pension.

Based on the 4.7% overall figure– and roundings may differ – next year’s State Pensions will be:

The 4.7% increase compares with a projection of 4.6% in the last Economic and Fiscal Outlook from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). At an annual £12,537, the New State Pension will be £33 below the personal allowance, thereby deferring one potential tax headache for Rachel Reeves until next year. 

2026/27 will mark the tenth year of the New State Pension. Over that period the Triple Lock has proved a costly option, despite being disapplied in one year because of COVID-related pay distortions.

Source: Techlink Professional

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